Above-normal rainfall forecast for Greater Horn of Africa for June to September

Above-normal rainfall is predicted over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa for June to September, including Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan.

This is according to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which serves as a WMO regional climate centre.

June to September is an important rainy season in the northern and western parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, where it generally contributes more than 90% of the annual rainfall in the northern part of the region and 40% in southern areas. 

The forecasted wetter-than-normal conditions for June to September 2024 echo the patterns of 1998 and 2010, with a risk of flooding especially in South Sudan and Sudan, according to Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s Director.

Countries which recently suffered devastating flooding go into dry season from June to September. These include Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, United Republic of Tanzania and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia and Uganda, 

Seasonal climate outlooks are important for decision-making in sectors like agriculture, health and water resource management. They also form part of a suite of products provided by the WMO community to support the implementation of the Early Warnings for All initiative.

The forecast was issued at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, which brings together climate scientists, governmental and non-governmental organizations, and climate sensitive sectors.  

For more than two decades, WMO has supported regional climate outlook forums, which provide actionable climate forecasts and information to help save lives and livelihoods and support key sectors like agriculture and food security, water resource management, health and disaster risk reduction.

In line with the World Meteorological Organization's guidelines and recommendations, ICPAC has adopted an objective seasonal forecast method to generate climate forecasts for the Greater Horn of Africa. This entails using initialized seasonal forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) and processing them with three calibration techniques.

An early to normal onset is expected in several parts of the region including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. However, a delayed onset is likely in Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan. 
 
The temperature forecast shows a probability of warmer-than-normal conditions across the region, particularly over northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.